Panel at IIT meet discusses future of energy

THIS ARTICLE WAS PUBLISHED ON THE INDIAN EXPRESS (US and Canada Circulation) - 25 July 2008

Experts predict that the world energy demand is likely to double by 2030 from a moderate 150 million barrels in 1980 and countries like China and India would emerge as its largest consumers. It’s high time that governments seriously consider harnessing the spiraling demand or think of alternative measures because dependence on OPEC nations might not be a viable option in the years to come as their increasing domestic demands would force them to switch gears.

Such alarming predictions have definitely driven the intelligentsia across the globe to hold frequent seminars and panel discussions to publicly discuss the gravity of the matter and suggest possible solutions. A change in the mid-sets of the people and Govt. policies is what can get a stranglehold of the situation.

In one of the panel discussions organized by the IIT-Bombay Alumni Association celebrating their 50th Anniversary at the Marriott Marquis Hotel in New York, the future of energy was discussed at length by a panel of five eminent people including Balu Balagopal, Co-Lead of Energy Practices in Boston Consulting Group; Steve Jacobs, President of RMI/ Decision Strategies Inc.; Vijay Modi a faculty member of Columbia University; Vikram Rao, retired CTO of Halliburon; Arvind Sangar from Geosphere Capital Management. Pradeep Anand of Seeta Resources LLC. was the session moderator.

To begin the proceedings, Jacobs said, “According to the Peak Oil View, Middle East Oil production will not rise any further, instead would be a larger market than the entire Europe by 2015 and would have little to export. The Plentiful Oil View on the other hand tells us that only 30-35% of the total oil reserves across the globe have been explored and the new technologies will allow 50-70% recovery. It also leads us that high oil and gas prices will enhance exploration and production spending.”



Jacobs added, “But the problem is that most of the world’s hydrocarbon reserves are located in politically and historically volatile areas and the challenge is developing infrastructure in such places. There are some viable options in the form of Extended Reach Drilling, Seismic Imaging explorations etc. but the question remains whether technology will save the day. Conservation, Alternative Fuel Switching and other energy solutions might be better options.”

The obvious question that crops up is what are the alternative energy sources? Rao informed, “There is no shortage of energy molecule. They are simply in the wrong place or wrong form. Unconventional sources of energy mixed with conventional hydrocarbons might help meet the surging global demand. No one source is going to be sufficient because the demand growth particularly in the 4 BRIC countries is very significant especially in the transportation sector and this will keep increasing with economic growth.”

In recent years, Ethanol has emerged as another feasible substitute for fossil fuel. But that too has its pros and cons. Rao highlighted, “Ethanol has 33% fewer calories than gasoline. If you substitute 50% gasoline by ethanol, the gas mileage will decrease by16 % than gasoline. So you will need more fuel to travel the same distance. But having said that, ethanol has higher octane rating of 113 compared to 87 for gasoline. If you run a high compression engine of 14-15 as against 9-10 you can take advantage from the energy of the high octane rating. In that case, net amount of the miles you get per gallon will be completely recovered and be even better. Just as in Indi race cars which run on methanol and ethanol. If policies that encourage a change in the engines then ethanol can be a very good alternative.”


In India, where there isn’t too much of any particular source of hydrocarbons, diesel from the Jatropha seeds might be the best alternative for India feels Rao. “In a recent survey, IMF has identified that diesel from Jatropha in India and ethanol from sugarcane in Brazil is the only two viable alternative fuels for them compared to others. Another resource can be Algae but that would require vast expanse of lands. Besides, every metropolitan city in India should switch to CNG for scooter, motorcycles and buses as they have done in Delhi. Bio Diesel can be a very good option as well because it will also take care of the CO2 emission problem.”

The disturbing rise of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere due to increasing usage of fossil fuel is another major global crisis today. Balagopal said, “CO2 emissions is expected to a reach perilous mark of 42 Gtons by 2030 and atmospheric temperature might increase by 5-6 degrees. This would have a negative impact on the GDP growth rate.”

Suggesting a solution to the problem he added, “Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) might be viable option for mitigating the global warming problem. If 1000 largest stationary sources use this technology then 15 GT of emissions can be reduced per year. Today it would require about 45 Euros per ton to implement CCS technology at these facilities. But Carbon trading could offset the likely cost of capturing, transporting and storing CO2 emitted by the stationary fossil-fuel sources. But gain there are several challenges and requirements to be met.”


Sanger, did not seem too hopeful about the future. He said, “Demand destruction in the US and to a smaller extent in Europe may cause the oil prices to come down in the short run only. But in the long term, prices cannot come down if the developed and the emerging economies keep growing.”

Sangar continued, “You can use certain technologies to increase production by 5-10% but there is a practical limit to how much you can extract. Besides, we cannot forget that all oil fields decline over time. So, you have to keep finding new oil fields. In situations where the governments of countries like Nigeria, Iran, Russia, sitting on oil, do not allow extraction, curbing demand seems to be the most practical long-run solution.”